A Big Stack Mistake at the 2006 WSOP*
Phil Gordon

I went pretty deep in the first event at the World Series of Poker*, a $1,500 No-Limit Hold ‘em tournament. While I wasn’t pleased with the outcome – I finished 45th in a 2,776 player field – I was happy with my play. For this tip, I’m going to share an interesting hand from the tournament – one where I made a mistake.

It was late in the first day of play, and things had been going well. My stack had grown to over 60,000 and I was among the chip leaders. The average stack was around 20,000 at that point, the blinds were 600-1,200 with a 200 ante, and I was fortunate enough to be at a timid table. I was stealing with impunity. I was meeting so little resistance that, at points, I was able to steal the blinds and antes four times per orbit. I’d raise pre-flop, everyone would fold, and I’d add valuable chips to my stack.

After some time at this table, an under-the-gun player raised all-in pre-flop for a little over 20,000 in chips. It was folded to me on the button, and I found Ace-King off-suit. I decided to call. My opponent also had Ace-King, but he was suited with hearts. I lost the large pot when my opponent hit his flush.

It would be easy to write off the hand as plain old bad luck. After all, we started with hands of almost identical strength. But, the truth is, I shouldn’t have played the hand at all.

Sure, Ace-King is a strong hand, but it’s no better than a three to one favorite over something like Ace-Queen. Against other hands my opponent could have held, like pocket 10s or Jacks, it’s a slight underdog.

There were also factors beyond the math that I should have considered. For instance, given the table dynamics, there was no need for me to risk one-third of my chips on this hand. If I had folded, I could have gone back to stealing, padding my stack while risking only a fraction of my chips. What’s more is that, after I lost, I had to become more conservative, as I no longer had a big chip advantage over the other players.

Losing that pot had other consequences, as well. In this tournament, the blind-to-stack ratio didn’t allow for a lot of play. For much of the tournament, the average stack had no more than 12 or 13 big blinds. When I lost those chips, I could no longer re-raise pre-flop, then fold to an all-in if my move didn’t work out. If someone raised before the action got to me, I had only two choices; fold or move in.

There are plenty more tournaments to come in the WSOP* and I’m hopeful that, in the following weeks, I’ll win my first bracelet. To do that, of course, I’ll also have to do a better job of protecting my chips the next time I have a big stack.

New players who want to be good students of the game often ask me for advice. In response, I often tell them about emotional stability, which I touched on in my last tip. The next point I’d like to make is that they need to be careful when assessing their own play. That’s because there are a couple of common mistakes new players make that lead them to draw faulty conclusions about the strength of their play.

After playing for a short period of time, say 100 hours, a player starts to develop an opinion about his or her play. They might think they’re playing very well or very poorly, but this conclusion might be far from the truth. The problem is that, in the short term, anything can happen. A player may get very lucky or unlucky and show results that are either far higher or lower than they could ever expect in the long-term. However, over a longer period – say 300 hours or more – a player is going to get a much more accurate view of their ability to beat the game.

So what does this mean for you? In short, I recommend that you keep an eye on your long-term results no matter if you’re in the midst of a hot streak or a cold one. While taking the long view will help you more accurately assess your play, it can’t help you avoid every pitfall along the way.

For example, assume that I’ve played the following games of No-Limit Hold ‘em and have managed the following debts and profits:

Game: $1/$2
Hours: 200
Profit/Loss: -$2,000

Game: $2/$4
Hours: 200
Profit/Loss: -$4,000

Game: $25/50
Hours: 30
Profit/Loss: +$36,000

At first glance, it looks like I’m dong pretty well, right? I’ve make a handsome profit of $30,000. Look deeper though and you’ll see that I wouldn’t want to quit my day job because, in fact, I’m doing quite poorly.

To better understand what I mean, don’t think about the actual dollar figures involved but, instead, think of each small blind as a unit. So, in a $1/$2 game, each unit is 1 and in a $25/$50 game each unit is 25.

How have I done in terms of units won and lost? I’ve lost 2,000 units in the $1/$2 game, 2,000 units in the $2/$4 game and won 1,440 units in the $25/$50 game. Total everything up and you’ll see that after 430 hours of play, I’ve lost 2,560 units. This is bad news.

As you keep records of your sessions, be sure to record the size of the game you’re playing and number of units you’ve won or lost. At the start of your poker career, put more emphasis on units won or lost than on your total profit. It’s a more accurate gauge as to whether you’re playing winning poker.

Keith Sexton

A few weeks ago, I offered some pointers for playing fourth steet in Limit Seven-Card Stud. For this tip, I’m going and show how you might improve your play on seventh street.

My first suggestion for playing on seventh street is that you need to look at your pot odds when facing a final bet. When playing $5-$10 Stud, for example, you’ll often need to call a $10 river bet while looking at a pot of $70. In this spot, where you’re getting 7:1, if you have any suspicion that your hand is good, you really ought to call. The odds are so favorable that throwing away a lot of marginal hands would be a mistake. This is very different from no-limit poker, where you’ll need to make some big laydowns late in a hand. If you’re making the transition from No-Limit Hold ‘em to Limit Stud, keep this very important point in mind.

Some of the tougher decisions on seventh street arise when you’re holding one pair. Let’s say you start with a pair of 6s and your opponent open-raises with a King as his door card. He bet all the way, representing a pair of Kings, and you called. Neither of you seemed to improve on fourth, fifth or sixth streets, and he bet out on the river.

At this point, you can be fairly certain that he doesn’t have a pair of Kings. Most people don’t have the heart to bet one pair on the river. So, in this case, you’re likely up against something like Kings up, some sort of hidden hand, or a total bluff. Given this range of hands – and knowing that a bluff is a possibility – you should make the final call. You’ll pick off a bluff enough of the time to make the call profitable.

I want to point out here that, since it’s proper to call with a lot of marginal hands, betting with one solid pair on the river is often a good idea. If you start with something like a pair of Kings and your opponent doesn’t seem to catch anything, don’t be timid on the river. Oftentimes, you should bet, knowing that a lesser hand is likely to call.

Now, let’s look at another river situation. Let’s say that after the river has been dealt, you have Q 10 9 8 with three clubs showing. You made a straight on the river after your opponent has been aggressively betting his hand the entire way, showing Ad Kd 9s 6h.

After betting into your hand on sixth street, he again bets into your hand on seveth street. In this situation, you have to think about what your opponent is betting into. Most players will not bet into such a scary board with one pair or even two pair.

We have to assume that our opponent is either bluffing with a weak hand and is unconcerned with our hand, or has a huge hidden hand and is hoping to get three bets on the river. This could be a situation where you might just call, especially if there is a third hand behind you who might over-call with a marginal hand that he would fold if you had raised.

When playing Limit Stud, be sure that you’re making enough value bets and crying calls on the river. Keep the pot odds in mind and you’re likely to make the right play.